Weekly Market RecapThis week the preliminary estimate for third quarter US GDP growth came in at 1.5%. This was a slower rate of growth than the prior quarter, as businesses drew down inventories and exports were lower. However, US consumers are continuing to spend, and we saw more healthy employment data this week. Internationally, the UK's GDP growth for Q3 came in lower than expected, but Japanese industrial production improved for September, as did economic sentiment in the European Union for October. See the BEA link below for more information on this data. A reminder this week on the dangers of chasing hot investments. It's tempting to look back and think that you should invest in a particular fund or sector, which has performed well in recent months. But, typically, top sector performers rotate over time, and what was hot last quarter or last year often may perform poorly in the future. In fact, Vanguard conducted a historical study (link below) that showed that chasing past top performing funds is likely to hurt your returns by 1.5% to 4.0% a year relative to opting for a more stable investment allocation. This is one reason we believe that investment allocations should be relatively stable with a rebalanced portfolio. We believe chasing short-term returns can be counterproductive. Not only can this drive up trading and tax costs, we believe it can also hurt portfolio performance and increase risk. Notes Disclaimer Your Portfolio Update
Over the past month your portfolio was up 5.5%, and we have no recommendations at this time to improve it. Congratulations on maintaining one of the best portfolios among all our clients. We will, as always, continue monitoring your account and alerting you if there are actions to take (periodic rebalancing is required, etc). Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Saturday, October 31, 2015
Your portfolio up 5.5% over the last 30 days as US GDP grows 1.5%
Saturday, October 24, 2015
Your portfolio up 6.9% over the last 30 days as Europe hints at further stimulus
Weekly Market RecapThis week saw continued good employment news in the US, accompanied by better housing data than many expected. In Canada, the Liberal Party won an election victory, bringing to an end a decade in power for the Conservatives. In China, economic growth for the most recent quarter came in at 6.9%. This is the slowest rate of Chinese growth in 6 years and China, once again, cut interest rates this Friday. Nonetheless, this rate of growth remains high by global standards and was a relief to those who feared a sharply weakening Chinese economy. In Europe, the European Central Bank left their accommodative policies unchanged, but hinted at more stimulus in December, which was viewed positively by markets. Notes: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Update
Over the past month your portfolio was up 6.9%, and we have no recommendations at this time to improve it. Congratulations on maintaining one of the best portfolios among all our clients. We will, as always, continue monitoring your account and alerting you if there are actions to take (periodic rebalancing is required, etc). Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Saturday, October 17, 2015
Your portfolio up 2.9% over the last 30 days as markets rebound from summer lows
Weekly Market RecapThis week saw international stock markets continue to rise from the pullback we saw over the summer, rewarding investors with a long-term strategy. US jobs figures showed continued strength remaining near historic lows, though inflation remains subdued, both in the US and in many developed countries. Your Portfolio Update
Over the past month your portfolio was up 2.9%, and we have no recommendations at this time to improve it. Congratulations on maintaining one of the best portfolios among all our clients. We will, as always, continue monitoring your account and alerting you if there are actions to take (periodic rebalancing is required, etc). Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Saturday, October 10, 2015
Your portfolio up 4.4% over the last 30 days as IMF nudges down global growth estimates
Weekly Market RecapThe markets have moved up in recent weeks, even though the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has nudged down growth projections for this year by 0.2%, to a 3.1% estimated annual global growth rate. Generally, for 2015 the IMF's outlook is one of improving economic growth in North America, Europe and Japan, but slowing growth in emerging markets, most notably Brazil and Russia. Remember that 3.1% still represents a healthy level of global growth in our view, 2013 and 2014 saw global growth rates of 3.3% and 3.4% respectively and for 2016 the IMF sees the global growth rate increasing to 3.6%. The summer has seen higher that normal tax loss harvesting activity for Premium clients. Historically, tax loss harvesting has not been spread out evenly over time based on history, and we generally see more opportunities to tax loss harvest during sharper pullbacks, just as we saw in August and September. It is important to remember that even if you don't have existing gains to offset losses, there are other useful ways to use harvested losses to help with your taxes. Harvested losses do not expire and can be "carried forward" which means that they can be used to offset capital gains in future years. Another alternative is to use up to $3,000 of losses to offset your ordinary income in a given year. These options mean that losses don't have to offset capital gains in the same year. We believe this flexibility broadens the usefulness of tax loss harvesting more than most would think. Finally, we look at the cost and benefits of every trade we implement for Premium customers or recommend for our other users. For tax loss harvesting this means that we anticipate a benefit after all costs of the trade are assessed. We also generally look to take action before a material opportunity to tax loss harvest could reverse, rather than miss it. This does mean that in some cases we will tax loss harvest more than once over a period of months to make sure that we are taking advantages of portfolio opportunities as they are presented. Note that tax loss harvesting is one benefit available to certain client accounts under our Premium service. We do not provide recommendations for tax loss harvesting trades for non-Premium users as we do not typically have access to cost basis information for those holdings. Footnote: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Update
Over the past month your portfolio was up 4.4%, and we have no recommendations at this time to improve it. Congratulations on maintaining one of the best portfolios among all our clients. We will, as always, continue monitoring your account and alerting you if there are actions to take (periodic rebalancing is required, etc). Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Saturday, October 3, 2015
Your portfolio up 1.0% over the last 30 days as US consumer spending grows
Weekly Market RecapThis week saw positive data on US consumer spending. However, US employment improved less than expected. US manufacturing activity appeared a little weaker, but still grew. In the Eurozone, low inflation prompted the prospect of further monetary stimulus for the region. We also saw the end of the third quarter of the year, which marked the worst quarter for global financial markets since 2011, as concerns over Chinese growth and global commodity pricing weighed on markets. While many investors have not been pleased with the direction markets have headed in recent months, you should always keep in mind that such pullbacks and volatility are actually quite a common component of financial markets and a normal part of investing. Furthermore, recent weeks have seen lower volatility. Your Portfolio Update
Over the past month your portfolio was up 1.0%, and we have no recommendations at this time to improve it. Congratulations on maintaining one of the best portfolios among all our clients. We will, as always, continue monitoring your account and alerting you if there are actions to take (periodic rebalancing is required, etc). Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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