Weekly Market RecapThis week saw soft US existing home sales for February. The oil price fell as US crude oil inventories stood at high levels. Despite this, oil remains close to $40 a barrel, and well above the lows approaching $30 a barrel we saw just last month. PMI survey data suggested expansion in the Eurozone for March, with the data making a 3 month high. The tragic terrorist attack in Belgium appeared to have little impact on the markets, however our thoughts are with those affected. On any given trading day, the chances of the US stock market rising or falling are similar to tossing a coin; a 53% chance of a rise and 47% chance of a decline to be exact, based on our historical analysis. As such, in the very short term, we view the stock market as essentially unpredictable. However, longer term stock market trends appear both more reliable and more encouraging. For example, over the course of a decade, the US market has risen 9 times out of 10 based on history. So, yes, the market can seem like a lottery on a day-to-day basis. Nonetheless, historical analysis suggests that your odds greatly improve with a long-term view and investment time horizon. We are using the US stock market for this analysis because the data stretches back the longest, but a look at global markets also reveals a similar pattern. Finally, a reminder that IRA deadlines are approaching in the next few weeks so if you haven't already done so, you should make a decision about funding your account(s) soon. Notes: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
| |||||
|
Sunday, March 27, 2016
Your Weekly Update - Eurozone Survey Signals Expansion
Saturday, March 19, 2016
Your Weekly Update - Fed Holds Rates Steady
Weekly Market RecapAt this week's Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, rates were held steady and the Fed saw the US economy continuing to expand at a "moderate pace" with "strong jobs gains" somewhat offset by "soft" US investment and exports. In the EU, industrial production for January saw its best growth since September 2009. One potential mistake we believe you can make with your investments is to hold too much of an individual stock, especially the stock of your employer. Financial and statistical research has demonstrated in our view that holding smaller investments in a larger number of stocks can offer a better risk/return trade-off than concentrating your investments in a single stock. Furthermore, if you're holding a large amount of stock in your employer, the risk may be greater because your income and career prospects may be linked to the fortunes of your investment portfolio, meaning your overall income is subject to potentially greater risk than with a more diversified portfolio. We believe broad-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) can offer a good option for diversification because many hold thousands of individual stocks or bonds within a single ETF. Then we see an additional level of benefit coming from diverse asset classes used in portfolio construction. Just as holding a large number of stocks can lower risk relative to anticipated return, so holding different asset classes and taking broad geographical exposure has the potential to smooth returns over time. For example, stocks and government bonds have historically offered a portfolio hedge when held together as they can, at times, move in different directions. So we believe diversification is a key tenet of financial theory and ETFs and diverse asset classes are important to achieving it. Notes: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
If you wish to change your email settings, visit your Settings. | |||||
|
Saturday, March 5, 2016
Your Weekly Update - Markets Continue To Gain From Recent Lows
Weekly Market RecapThis week was a positive one for most major stock markets. Vehicle sales in February hit a 15 year high in the US and manufacturing survey data was less negative than many had anticipated. Internationally, China cut its reserve ratio requirement in a bid to stimulate bank lending and Eurozone inflation slipped into negative territory for February, potentially putting pressure on the European Central Bank to take action at next week's policy review. The oil price, which has attracted much attention recently, continued to lift from recent lows. When asked what the stock market will do, the great financier of the late 19th century, J.P. Morgan said, "It will fluctuate." We have seen volatility in the markets for the first portion of 2016, starting off with market weakness, but generally replaced by positive moves in recent weeks. A key thing to remember at times like these is that as Jeremy Siegel of Wharton states "Over the short run, equities are indeed a very volatile asset class. But over the long run, perhaps the most stable asset class of all, delivering the highest returns." Of course, this is a historical statement, and the future may differ materially, but Siegel puts historical annualized US equity returns at 6.7% after inflation when averaged between 1802 and 2011. Notes: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
If you wish to change your email settings, visit your Settings. | |||||
|