Weekly Market RecapThis week, US economic growth came in at 2.9% year-on-year for Q3 of 2016 as initially estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. If this estimate holds, it would be the highest rate of US quarterly GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in 2 years. Separately, surveys of purchasing managers suggested a positive outlook for manufacturing in the US and Europe for October, with Germany notably strong. US house prices continued to rise, up 5.1% for the last 12 months on Case-Shiller data. US consumer confidence softened slightly. As you contemplate your retirement, it's worth taking note of how the nature of retirement has changed in recent decades. In the 1950's life expectancy in the US at birth was estimated at 68 years based on census data, and it's now over 78. Americans born today are, on average, expected to live roughly a decade longer than their grandparents. This increase is generally attributed to improvements in public health. As you might expect, this increase in life expectancy has extended the retirement years. The average retirement age has increased slightly in the US, but not to the same extent that life expectancy has, which means a longer retirement for most people. In addition, this trend may well continue as many experts see US life expectancy increasing further. This is why retirement saving is so important. It can give you quality of life and flexibility in your later years, especially because you will likely have a significantly longer retirement than prior generations. Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
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Sunday, October 30, 2016
Your Weekly Update - US Growth Moves Up
Saturday, October 22, 2016
Your portfolio down 2.0% over the last 30 days as inflation nudges up
Weekly Market RecapThe September release of US inflation (the rate of change in average prices), saw prices rising at a 1.5% annual rate, boosted primarily by rising energy prices. This is still low by historical standards, but suggests that US inflation could be returning to a level more consistent with historical norms after very low figures in recent months. Across developed markets, inflation has remained relatively subdued at a 1% annual rate, or below. In fact, in Japan, prices are even declining based on most recent data. Inflation matters for investors because as prices rise, a dollar can purchase less, on average, making your savings worth less in terms of purchasing power. Therefore, all else equal, subdued inflation has historically been good for savers. For example, unexpected spikes in inflation, as we experienced in the US in the 1970s, was temporarily harmful to diversified portfolio returns. That's one reason why we believe including attractive assets that also offer a degree of inflation protection, like TIPS or REITs, can be prudent for long-term portfolios. Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Update
Over the past month your portfolio was down 2.0%, and we have no recommendations at this time to improve it. Congratulations on maintaining one of the best portfolios among all our clients. We will, as always, continue monitoring your account and alerting you if there are actions to take (periodic rebalancing is required, etc). Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Saturday, October 15, 2016
Your portfolio down 0.6% over the last 30 days as Fed sees economy on track
Weekly Market RecapMinutes from September's Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting from last month suggested that the Fed saw the US economy on track with the consumer a source of strength, making a rate increase in the next few months a possibility. Internationally, the British pound weakened as Brexit plans became firmer. The price of oil moved above $50 on potential production cuts. This lifted the price of oil above the lower range it has traded in for most of 2016. Recent months have been relatively stable and positive for most global markets. Nonetheless, there is value in having a long-term perspective for your stock investments. Stock markets have historically been more reliable over the long-run than the short-term. For example, on a day-to-day basis whether the markets go up or down has historically been little better than a coin toss. However, when viewed historically over decades, stock markets have been more consistent in delivering positive returns. Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Update
Over the past month your portfolio was down 0.6%, and we have no recommendations at this time to improve it. Congratulations on maintaining one of the best portfolios among all our clients. We will, as always, continue monitoring your account and alerting you if there are actions to take (periodic rebalancing is required, etc). Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Saturday, October 8, 2016
Your portfolio down 2.1% over the last 30 days as IMF updates outlook
Weekly Market RecapThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated their World Economic Outlook this week, estimating global growth at 3.1% for 2016 and 3.4% for 2017, broadly in line with July's estimates. Recent positives for these global figures came from reduced concerns about Chinese growth and firmer commodity prices. Recent negatives were the potential impact of Brexit and somewhat slower US growth than previously forecast. The IMF Outlook reinforces the value of an internationally diversified portfolio in our view. In aggregate, the IMF expects emerging markets to grow at a faster rate than advanced economies in both 2016 and 2017. Emerging economies are seen growing at over a 4% aggregate rate, while the projected aggregate growth rate for advanced economies is expected to be below 2% for both this year and next. With major economies growing at different rates and being at different points in their economic cycles, we believe international diversification can smooth returns. Notes: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Update
Over the past month your portfolio was down 2.1%, and we have no recommendations at this time to improve it. Congratulations on maintaining one of the best portfolios among all our clients. We will, as always, continue monitoring your account and alerting you if there are actions to take (periodic rebalancing is required, etc). Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Saturday, October 1, 2016
Your portfolio up 0.3% over the last 30 days as consumer confidence hits highs
Weekly Market RecapThis week saw US consumer confidence hit a new high for this economic cycle topping the January 2015 reading. Jobless claims remained low and GDP growth for Q2 in the US was revised upwards. Other data this week suggested that housing market growth is moderating, though the overall 2016 picture for housing appears positive with US house prices up 5% this year nationally according to the Case-Shiller Index. Portland, Seattle and Denver saw the largest increases of major metro areas. As we start to enter the final quarter of the year and tax comes into focus, we want to remind you of the value of long-term gains for your taxable investment account. As a reminder, a taxable account is a traditional brokerage account where you typically pay tax on capital gains, not an IRA or 401(k) or similar investments since, these can defer tax payments. Under the current US tax code, capital gains on stocks and bonds that have been held over one year are generally taxed at lower rate than capital gains held for shorter periods. So, all else equal, for many investors, holding your successful investments for more than a year can reduce the percentage tax you pay. Under the current US tax code, long-term gains are taxed at absolute rates that can be between 10% and 20% lower (depending on your tax bracket) than your short-term gains. Short-term gains are generally taxed at your federal and state income tax rates. Thus, holding an investment with a gain for more than a year can reduce the percentage of that gain you pay in tax. That's why our algorithm considers long-term gains when managing trades for Premium clients, and why you should similarly consider holding investments for over a year before selling them. Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Update
Over the past month your portfolio was up 0.3%, and we have no recommendations at this time to improve it. Congratulations on maintaining one of the best portfolios among all our clients. We will, as always, continue monitoring your account and alerting you if there are actions to take (periodic rebalancing is required, etc). Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
* All amounts are as of the sent date of this email | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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