Weekly Market RecapThis week saw further volatility in the oil price, as has been a theme of recent weeks. US manufacturing activity contracted for the 4th consecutive month based on survey data in January, though US consumer income increased in December. Overseas, German unemployment fell to a new low of 6.2%, hitting the its lowest level since German reunification. Your Portfolio Summary
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Saturday, February 6, 2016
Your Weekly Update - Accessing Your 2015 Tax Documents
Sunday, January 31, 2016
Your Weekly Update - Fed Holds Rates Steady
Weekly Market RecapThe Federal Reserve (Fed) met this week and unanimously decided to hold interest rates constant after raising them for the first time in almost a decade last month. The Fed saw strength in many areas of the US economy including the labor market, household spending, business investment and housing. Counterbalancing this, the Fed saw declining exports and slowing inventory investment, and also noted that US economic growth slowed late last year. Overall, the Fed's view on the US economy is positive, and is still expecting to see the economy expand at a "moderate pace". The Fed's relatively positive outlook stands in contrast to the recent volatility we've seen in many financial markets. Part of this may be because the areas that appear to have caused concern in the markets recently, such as Chinese growth, are less immediate concerns to the Fed given their domestic mandate. On the other hand, as the economist Nouriel Roubini has quipped, the stock market has predicted "twelve of the last eight recessions". What this means is that even though the stock market can be a leading indicator of economic decline, it can also be misleading. Historically, there have been several downturns in the stock market that wrongly forecasted a coming recession. In fact, at times, these downturns lead to several years of continued growth. Just as the stock market can be ineffective at forecasting, so can many experts. For example, research by Prakash Loungani from the International Monetary Fund has highlighted that many economists have a dismal record of forecasting recessions, such as failing to predict the 2008-9 recession even in September 2008 when it was in progress. This is one reason why we aim to design our asset allocation for the long-term rather than make frequent adjustments based on short-term predictions. Notes: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
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Saturday, January 23, 2016
Your Weekly Update - Oil Swings Sharply
Weekly Market RecapThis week saw oil move below $27 a barrel only to rebound to over $32 by the end of the week. In addition, Chinese fourth quarter GDP growth came in a 6.8%, and Chinese industrial production for December grew 5.9%. These numbers represent high growth rates as compared to many countries in the world, but imply slowing growth in China relative to recent history. More generally, the IMF also nudged down its forecast for global growth for 2016 to 3.4% anticipating a deeper and longer Brazilian recession and slightly softer US growth for 2016 based on a stronger dollar impacting US exports and a weaker energy sector. The IMF's forecast for 2016 global GDP growth is above estimated growth for 2015 and in line with 2014. Given the weak start to the year for global markets, it's worth noting that fixed income instruments are performing as we would expect in this environment, and thereby providing some stability to portfolios. As a proxy for broader bond markets, the 10 year Treasury currently yields very close to 2% after starting the year above 2.2%, and, as a reminder, a falling yield means a higher bond price. This is one reason why we believe fixed income is an important component of portfolios, because when stocks dip on growth concerns, certain bonds can perform more strongly, and that's what we've seen so far in 2016. Notes: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
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Thursday, January 21, 2016
FutureAdvisor | Market movements have created an opportunity to rebalance
As part of our 24/7 monitoring of your investments and the markets, we want to alert you that it may be a good time to rebalance your portfolio based on recent market movements. Based on the market fluctuations since our last rebalance email on September 23, 2015, we are recommending that you take action in 1 of your accounts. If you have any questions or want to talk to an advisor just reply to this email. Thanks again for using FutureAdvisor. If you wish to change your email settings, visit your Settings. | ||
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Sunday, January 17, 2016
Your Weekly Update - Market Volatility Rises
Weekly Market RecapThis week saw improving US job market data as the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index posting its highest reading since 2008. However, internationally data was weaker - industrial production declined for November in both the UK and India. Your Portfolio Summary
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Saturday, January 9, 2016
Your Weekly Update - Chinese manufacturing weakness concerns markets
Weekly Market RecapThis week saw a volatile start to the markets for 2016, and survey data showed both Chinese and US manufacturing activity declining last month. Chinese concerns particularly weighed on markets with the Chinese stock market twice hitting its circuit breaker for daily declines. A circuit breaker is a market regulatory control to end trading for the day when market declines exceed a predetermined level. However, there was positive news too, with employment data in the US remaining robust and European economic confidence reaching its highest level since 2011. In addition, remember, that this 5.31% annualized gross return actually includes a decline of 42% in 2008, a decline of 6.8% in 2011, and a decline of nearly 2% in 2015. So, historically speaking, investors in equity strategies tracking the MSCI ACWI index who have been able to avoid a focus on shorter term declines and look at the broader picture may have seen their money grow, despite several years of absolute declines within the period. Your Portfolio Summary
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Sunday, January 3, 2016
Your Weekly Update - Happy New Year!
Weekly Market RecapNow's a great time to consider your resolutions for 2016. When it comes to your investments, we believe that having a clear written plan can help you maintain a strategy. A plan can be less than a page, but can be useful so that you, for example, can pre-commit to making smart moves in the new year; like making regular contributions to your retirement portfolio or a commitment to avoid selling during a weak market environment. We like to call this maintaining your investor discipline. Notes: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
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