Weekly Market RecapThis week saw US GDP estimates revised up for Q1, and some very strong US housing data. US housing has been mixed in recent years, but may now be starting to gain momentum. Internationally, Greece continues to dominate headlines, but remember that Greece accounts for less than 0.5% of the global economy. This week, we want to discuss the value of emerging markets for your investment returns. At FutureAdvisor, we currently see good prospects for emerging market stocks within a diversified portfolio. The term emerging markets refers to foreign countries that are typically less mature in their institutions and processes but may experience faster growth than the global economy. Examples of emerging markets include China, India and Brazil. One reason we view emerging markets as attractive is because their stock markets generally trade at a discount to the global markets. For example, emerging markets currently have a dividend yield of 3.0% relative to 1.9% for the US market. This considerable price discount means that emerging markets have the potential to deliver a healthy return. Our research suggests that markets with higher dividends see higher than average returns. Secondly, emerging markets can offer the prospect of higher growth, due to both economic and demographic trends. For example, China has grown at or above 7% for recent years, which is double or triple the growth in many advanced economies. Of course, buying individual stocks in emerging market can be complex, but Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) offer an attractive way to gain diversified emerging market exposure at low cost with minimal complexity, in our view. So, we believe emerging markets can help your portfolio grow for the long term, especially when they are part of our diversified portfolio model to help level your returns over time. For example, this year so far China is the best performing stock market of the major economies up 12% in dollar terms, and last year India grew approximately 30% making another emerging market the top performer of major countries. Of course, this growth can come with volatility, and this year Brazil has been weak, just as Russia was in 2014, but overall so far this year emerging market funds are generally growing ahead of their broad US market equivalents. This growth can come with larger short term ups and downs over time, but that can provide opportunities for the tax loss harvesting we offer Premium customers, and for a long-term investor with a diversified portfolio, we believe emerging markets are an important portfolio component to help growth, which is why they form a significant portion of our recommended equity allocation. Reminder: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Saturday, June 27, 2015
Your Weekly Update - US GDP Estimates Improve
Sunday, June 21, 2015
Your Weekly Update - Fed Sees US Economy On Track
Weekly Market RecapThe Federal Reserve held their June meeting this week. They reaffirmed that the US economy hit a temporary soft patch in the first quarter, but that the economy appears on a positive trajectory with improving employment and subdued inflation. The Fed said that they expect to raise rates in the second half of 2015, assuming the economy stays on its current course. In Europe, Greece continues to make headlines with speculation about a possible Euro exit and potential default at the end of June, but private negotiations continue. As we've mentioned previously, rising US interest rates may get more attention than they deserve. History shows that both stocks and bonds generally rise during periods of rising rates. It is important to remember that typically interest rates rise in response to a strong economy, and a strong economy is generally good for stocks. In addition, we have taken action over the last couple of years to reduce the overall duration of our recommended diversified bond portfolio which we expect to help preserve the principal value of your bond investments, even as rates rise. Also, a quick reminder on how bonds help your portfolio. Bonds have generally been a valuable way to manage the shorter term risks of holding equities. Often, when the stock market is weak, bonds can perform well and this is useful in smoothing the returns in your portfolio. Bonds are generally regarded as the most useful asset class for this role, and also provide a return through interest payments. Smoother returns means less volatility in your portfolio, which has shown time after time to encourage people to stick to their long-term plan. Without bonds, we believe your portfolio is more susceptible to bigger ups and downs, which can create fear and ultimately a desire to changes one's strategy - usually at the wrong time. Additionally, bonds have historically been less risky than stocks. US Treasuries have only seen an annual fall of more than 10% only once since 1928; in that year they fell just under 12%. As we mentioned last week, stocks have offered greater historical returns, but can move up and down significantly over fairly short periods. In contrast, bond returns have historically been lower, but more stable. Years of negative returns for bonds are infrequent. Finally, remember that our recommended fixed income exposure is well-diversified. US bonds are part of our fixed income portfolio, but the funds we use are diversified across thousands of bonds with different durations and credit risks. In addition, inflation protected securities and international debt are also a large part of our recommended fixed income exposure. See our recent piece in Forbes for more information on how bonds help your portfolio: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
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Saturday, June 13, 2015
Your Weekly Update - US Consumer Spending Improves
Weekly Market RecapThis week saw strong US data on employment and consumer spending. In Europe, the focus was on Greece, and its negotiations over debt payments with creditors. Greece represents less than 2% of the Eurozone economy, but continues to get a lot of headlines. Elections in Turkey late last week saw the ruling AK Party unexpectedly lose power, which may mark an important shift for the country. However, the brightest spot for the markets so far this year remain in Asia, where Japan and China among the best performing markets in dollar terms. The global markets have been relatively weak over the past month. We understand that volatility in the markets is never pleasant. Even so, current volatility is actually well below historical norms. What does this mean for your portfolio? It means that volatility could rise in the future if history is used as a guide. Though we have seen some market declines in the past months, these are a normal part of investing, and they have been relatively small compared with history. We ask that to you remain disciplined and patient should volatility increase, since our research shows that's what helps your portfolio to grow. The last significant decline we saw in the global markets was an almost 20% drop in the second half of 2011. Clearly, it can be tempting to change course in the face of such declines, but those who sold missed out on markets rebounding to new highs the very next year. Similarly, in 2008-9 which was one of the largest declines in a century, the global markets were once again back growing strongly over the subsequent years. However, those who panicked and sold during 2008-9 not only may have reduced the value of their savings, they also missed out on the global stock markets moving up 73% in 12 months off the lows. We don't know that the market will always rebound with the same vigor from declines as they have in recent history. However, researchers at the London Business School have compiled data across 23 countries going back as far as 1900 and found that the global markets have grown 5.2% a year on average, after adjusting for inflation. At that rate of growth your money doubles in 14 years. However, researchers from DALBAR have found that unfortunately, the average individual investor earns a far lower return, the biggest reason for that is panicking and moving to cash when the markets decline. So the academic evidence is clear that equity investing has offered impressive returns historically, but it also shows that in order to capture those returns patience and consistency is needed. If you are concerned about your ability to manage your portfolio in a down market, you may want to consider automatic rebalancing. With our sophisticated threshold-based rebalancing we'll keep your portfolio balanced for its strategic goals without you having to lift a finger. This is one of our Premium service benefits. Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Sunday, June 7, 2015
Your Weekly Update - European prospects improve
Weekly Market RecapIn the past few weeks, we've seen improving European economic prospects and mediocre US data. US GDP numbers were revised down to a 0.7% decline for the first three months of the year, though many view this as a temporary blip. In Europe, signs that inflation is picking up slightly and the risks of deflation have receded were viewed positively by the markets. This is a useful reminder of the risks in short term forecasts. Last year, the story was of a robust US and a sick Europe, but now, only half way through 2015, those trends appear to be changing as European prospects improve relative to the US. We want to take a moment this week to discuss the appropriate risk tolerance for your portfolio. We automatically construct a retirement portfolio for you that reflects your time to retirement among other factors. For most people, we expect that a "moderate" risk tolerance is a good fit. For example, some people believe they need an "aggressive" risk tolerance because they are younger, but that's not necessarily the case. The glidepath we use automatically gives you greater risk and return exposure when you are young and then tapers it down as retirement gets closer. Another crucial concept to understand with respect to risk tolerance is the behavioral bias known as overconfidence. Simply put, overconfidence is the human tendency to believe too strongly in the accuracy of our own beliefs. When surveyed, 93% of American drivers rate themselves above the median. 60% of Americans believe they are better looking than the average person. Overconfidence leads us to take on more risk in our portfolios than we are actually willing to tolerate. For example, an investor may think he or she has the ability to stomach a 40% decline in their portfolio, but when that drop occurs, that same investor sells and moves to cash. During the last big market correction in 2008, more than half of "aggressive" investors moved out of equities. When stocks rebounded, they missed out on the returns. Studies show that overconfidence in investing tends tends to affect men and those under 35 the most. To combat overconfidence, recall how you behaved during the last market decline. If you haven't lived through a market decline yet, try to picture your portfolio with only 60% of it's value. Better yet, write a committment to yourself that you will not change your risk tolerance when markets are volatile. The most important thing about your risk tolerance is stick with it at all times, in good and in poor markets. It should reflect your own ability to tolerate risk through the ups and downs of the markets, not greed in the short-term. When the markets are doing well, it's tempting to be aggressive, and when markets fall, it feels better to be cautious. These types of behaviors destroy portfolio value over the long-term. Pick a risk tolerance that works for you whatever the markets are doing. When you change your risk tolerance, please note that it does result in trades that slightly drag performance due to the costs of trading. This is another reason to set your risk tolerance for the long term. Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Saturday, May 30, 2015
Your Weekly Update - Reminder On The Value Of 401(k) Matching
Weekly Market RecapWe want to remind you of an important employee benefit. 401(k) matching can boost your savings rate, and many larger employers offer it. For many, 401(k) matching means that, for every dollar you put into your retirement plan, your employer will also put in a dollar. Said otherwise: it's free money. That's a pretty spectacular potential 100% return on your investment even before the potential tax benefits. So, if you do have a 401(k) from your employer, make sure you are taking advantage of the match if it's available. This matching can be valuable even in cases where your 401(k) fees are a relatively high or the fund options limited, simply because the matching itself can be so valuable. There are limits to 401(k) matching in terms of the level of contributions your employer will match up to, and whether it's simple dollar for dollar matching on offer or something else. It's also important to remember that the employer match does not count towards the annual IRS deferral limit (currently $18,000 for 2015). Meaning, you can max out your 401(k) with $18,000 worth of contributions and say your employer matches $2,000, you'll have a total of $20,000 in your account. Roughly 60% of employers now offer a Roth, or post-tax, 401(k) option. Depending on your tax situation, you may want to consider allocating some or all of your contributions as post-tax. Do note, however, that employer matching funds are always Traditional, never Roth. So in the above example, if you make your $18,000 contribution as Roth, the $2,000 employer match would still be Traditional. If your employer came to you with a pay raise, it's unlikely you'd pass it up. However, with 401(k) matching is effectively a "pay raise" for your retirement savings. Make sure that you are aware of your options on 401(k) matching, and that you aren't letting a good deal pass you by. And if you're already on track with your 401(k) matching, it might be time to consider our Premium service that could get you on track financially including automatic rebalancing and tax loss harvesting. Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
Ways To Improve Your Portfolio
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Sunday, May 24, 2015
Your Weekly Update - S&P 500 Hits New Highs
Weekly Market RecapUS data this week was generally positive, and leading economic indicators for April were strong. The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting reiterated the view that the weakness in the US economy at the start of the year was transitory due to west coast dock strikes, bad weather and the energy sector. We saw the best data on housing starts in 7 years, but sales of existing homes for April were sluggish. Internationally, European news was positive, in our view, as the European Central Bank appeared to show strong commitment to its economic stimulus program until at least September 2016, and Japanese growth appears to be improving. Against this generally positive backdrop, Chinese growth appears to be slowing. This week we want to emphasize what we view as a major problem in how many people manage their retirement investments. The problem is holding too much stock of the company who is also your employer. Recent ICE/ERBI data shows on average, investors have 5-7% of their 401(k) in their company's stock; some hold far more. Holding significant stock in one company can be risky. Investing in one company is generally riskier than investing in a group of them. This is why we favor diversified ETFs in portfolios. But, with company stock the problem is worse because the performance of the company stock price will be linked to your salary and other benefits. The Enron scandal is one example of this. Many Enron employee believed wholeheartedly in their company, so much so that, at the time of the collapse, 62% of Enron employees' 401(k) funds were in Enron stock. Some employees even held all of their 401(k) in Enron stock. When Enron filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in December of 2001, the employees not only lost their jobs, they lost a large part of their savings. This is why we recommend that you should use your investment portfolio to balance risks to your income, rather than adding to those risks. If you hold too much of your company stock, should your employer hit a rough patch, you could lose your job, and see a big hit to your financial portfolio at the same time. Many companies are removing company stock from their 401(k) choices in favor of diversified funds; a move we applaud. The US Supreme Court ruled on two cases recently implying employers may need to take greater responsibility for the investment options that they offer in their employee 401(k) plans. This may lead to further improvement in 401(k) choices for employees. To see our actionable guidelines for 401(k) fund selection, please login using the link below: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
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Saturday, May 16, 2015
Five "Must Ask" Due Diligence Questions Before Making Any Investment
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Five "Must Ask" Due Diligence Questions Before Making Any Investment
How To Avoid Losing Investments Before They Cost You Money
KEY IDEAS
Learn how to profit from the "business common-sense test."Discover the most important question you should always ask first… before anything else.Get 5 extra bonus due diligence questions to protect your money.
Ignorance about investing isn't bliss… it's expensive.
What you don't know about investing will cost you money.
But the cure is simple – due diligence.
Due diligence is the critical skill that separates professional investors from amateurs.
Amateur investors act irresponsibly by risking their hard earned dollars on hunches, articles they read, brokerage investment advice, or hot tips without first performing due diligence. This invites unnecessary and avoidable risk resulting in catastrophic losses.
Professional investors do the opposite by investigating all investments first before ever putting a dime of capital at risk.
Sure, it's a pain and sometimes takes hard work, but getting answers to the tough questions up front can save you from expensive losses down the road.
There's simply no substitute for investment due diligence because it's what you don't know about investing that will cost you.
Below are the five due diligence questions you must ask yourself before making any investment.
Due Diligence Question #1: How Can I Lose Money With This Investment?
This question is so important I'm tempted to throw away the remaining four questions and just repeat it over and over again until you get it in your bones.
You don't know an investment until you understand all the ways you can lose money with it.
"Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1."-Warren Buffett
I can't overemphasize the importance of this question. You must first focus on the return ofyour capital, and only second concern yourself with the return on your capital.
The first question in my mind when analyzing any investment is to find all the ways I can lose money by identifying in advance all the major risks that can lead to losses.
Once these risks are fully identified, the second step is to pro-actively manage away whatever risks are manageable. I explain this two-step due diligence process in greater detail below:
The First Step in Risk Management is to Identify the Risk Profile
Your first job is to identify all the ways you can lose money with a particular investment. You do this by identifying and grouping the risks associated with that investment.
You may be surprised just how much risk is manageable.
You don't know an investment until you understand all the ways you can lose money with it.
With proper portfolio design and investment strategy, you can usually manage away every significant risk (except one or two) to acceptable proportions.
These one or two remaining risks define the specific, uncontrolled risk profile for that investment. It's the leftover risk you must live with.
In order to manage away the risks of loss, you must first know what risks are inherent to the investment you're considering.
Using the stock market as an example, there are almost a limitless number of risks, but for practical purposes, they can be profiled down to a few major categories:
"Company specific" risks include things like accounting scandals, lawsuits, and mismanagement – anything unique to the company that's not part of the industry. These risks are managed away by diversifying among multiple companies. Mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETF) are great examples of simple, cost effective tools to diversify away company specific risk."Industry specific" risks include a downturn in demand for widgets, changes in consumer tastes, disruptive technology changes, and industry law changes. This risk is controlled by not concentrating your portfolio in a single industry.A closely related risk is "investment style" risk such as value vs. growth, or large cap vs. micro cap. The market will vary how it rewards or punishes different investment styles over time. For this reason, you should manage this risk by not concentrating too heavily in any one specific investment style like micro cap, value, or growth."Market" risk is associated with ageneral downturn in investor's appetite for stocks, causing an overall reduction in the valuation level of equities. This risk is manageable through a sell discipline, hedging, or by diversifying into non-correlated markets such as real estate, commodities, cash, or international equities rather than solely domestic equities.
Again, the above risk profiles are designed to illustrate stock investing. However, the same principles can (and should be) applied to every asset class in your portfolio.
"All of life is the exercise of risk."-William Sloane Coffin, Jr.
For example, if you invest in real estate, you wouldn't want over-concentrate in one property, or one city, or one type of property. It's wiser to diversify away those risks that can be managed, rather than concentrate them.
The Second Step in Risk Management is to Create a Controlled Risk Profile
Once the risk profile for an investment is fully understood, your job as risk manager is two-fold:
First, you must design ways to manage away whatever risks can be eliminated.Second, you must accept only investments where the remaining uncontrolled risk profile doesn't overlap with other investments in your portfolio.
The end result is a minimization of the total risk for the entire portfolio, because it's composed of mostly uncorrelated, managed-risk investments.
Why bother with all this? Because lower risk means losing less money when you're wrong. That's important because losing less when you're wrong results in making more when you're right.
"Often the difference between a successful person and a failure is not one has better abilities or ideas, but the courage that one has to bet on one's ideas, to take a calculated risk – and to act."-Andre Malraux
Your ability to manage risk is limited only by your knowledge and creativity.
The critical point to understand is that each investment has unique risk management tools available that are directly related to the unique characteristics of the investment and the market it trades in.
For example, one of the largest risks to income producing real estate is a change in interest rates, since mortgage interest is one of your biggest expenses. This risk can be managed by locking down long term, fixed rate, fully amortizing financing.
You can also limit your loss in real estate to the amount of your down payment through the use of non-recourse financing, thus controlling the risk of widespread capital losses impacting your entire portfolio should one property turn into a loser.
Notice that these two financing tools for managing risk are unique to real estate and aren't available to investors in business or paper assets (the other two primary paths to wealth).
Lower risk means losing less when you're wrong and earning more when you're right.
Each market has its own unique characteristics for managing risk, and the paper asset markets are no different.
For example, most securities markets offer high liquidity and low transaction costs, making them a natural candidate for cost effectively managing many risks through a sell discipline.
In fact, many mutual funds have zero transaction costs and daily liquidity through their commission free exchange privilege.
However, using a sell strategy in real estate to control downside capital risk doesn't make sense compared to paper assets because of the prohibitively high transactions costs, and possible low liquidity during tough market conditions when you would want to sell.
In short, each market has unique characteristics that can be exploited to effectively manage the risk inherent in that market. What works in one market to lower risk may not apply in another market.
In summary, your first due diligence question is to uncover all the ways you can lose money with an investment.
The first step in this process is to profile what the risks are inherent in that investment.The second step is to develop strategies to control losses that match the unique character of that asset should the worst come to pass.
This is the essence of active risk management.
"And the day came when the risk to remain tight in the bud was more painful than the risk it took to blossom."-Anais Nin
After you have managed away all risks that can be eliminated, you're left with a specific, uncontrolled risk profile for that investment. This leads to your final risk management step, which is to make sure the remaining risk profile doesn't correlate with other investments in your portfolio.
For example, when I purchase apartment buildings, they are financed with long-term, non-recourse debt to control both interest rate risk and to minimize total risk of loss should Murphy's Law prevail.
In addition, each building is located in a different geographic market to assure the uncontrollable risk profile associated with location doesn't correlate to other assets in my portfolio.
The risk of loss on each apartment building similarly has no correlation to the risk inherent in my paper asset portfolio or my business. Each risk profile is unique to the asset.
This excessive focus on risk might seem pessimistic to many, but my experience is quite the opposite. All it really does is bring balance because investing is by definition a game of greed.
The objective is to make money so the game is naturally played offensively by looking for the profit. By disciplining yourself to look for the loss, you'll balance offense with an equally strong defense to create a winning team.
Stated another way, the hallmark of great investors isn't just strong positive returns, but consistent returns through all market conditions.
This can only be achieved by focusing on controlling losses through disciplined risk management.
The 1st step to investment due diligence is being aware of all the ways you can lose your money.
Due Diligence Question #2: How Will This Investment Help Me Achieve My Personal and Portfolio Objectives?
The portfolio objective for most investors is to maximize profit with minimum risk.
You achieve this goal by building a diversified portfolio of non-correlated, risk managed, high mathematical expectation investment strategies that capitalize on a competitive advantage in business, real estate, and/or paper asset investing. (Sorry, I know it's a mouthful. Read it twice. There is a lot of meat in that sentence.)
But it's not enough to just have a portfolio objective – you must also have a personal objective.
Your personal objective for investing is to achieve your portfolio objective in a way that honors your personal values, skills, and interests.
You're a unique human being who must travel his own path to success. After all, there's no point in climbing the ladder to success if it's leaning against the wrong wall.
"Success with money, family, relationships, health, and careers is the ability to reach your personal objectives in the shortest time, with the least effort and with the fewest mistakes. The goals you set for yourself and the strategies you choose become your blueprint or plan. Strategies are like recipes: choose the right ingredients, mix them in the correct proportions, and you'll always produce the same predictable results: in this case financial success."-Charles J. Givens
Investment success is a lifelong process, and humans aren't robots. The only way you'll stay the course long enough to succeed is when your investment strategy fits your interests, skills, goals and resources, thus providing emotional satisfaction.
Stated another way, one of the biggest obstacles to success is getting distracted by the endless opportunities that will cross your path.
There are many ways to make money investing, but I recommend you find the one or two that are going to work for you, and not get diverted by all the rest. You must stay the course long-term until you succeed.
For example, I've worked with successful real estate investors in single family homes, commercial real estate, mini-storage, office parks, mobile home parks, notes, apartments, and more. Yet, seldom do I meet successful investors who are actively working more than one of these investment niches at any one time.
The smorgasbord approach to investing doesn't work because each investment specialty has its own twists and turns that require specialized expertise.
Each niche has its own network that you must plug into for success. Each niche requires its own specialized skills and competitive advantage.
Nobody can (or should) be a master of all investment strategies because any one offers more than enough opportunity to reach financial freedom.
Don't be a master of all investment strategies - focus on 1 or 2 that work well for you.
For that reason, you must determine which niche has the inherent characteristics that best fits your interests, investment goals, and risk tolerance because that's where you'll discover wealth, happiness and fulfillment.
Not every investment alternative is suitable for every investor. Your job is to find the one uniquely suitable for you.
For example, every investment has an "active" and "passive" component to it. If you don't want to be a "hands on" real estate investor, then professionally managed apartment complexes make more sense than single family homes.
Even greater passivity can be obtained through paper asset investing if that fits your objective.
"Success is the progressive realization of worthwhile, predetermined, personal goals."-Paul J. Meyer
However, if you're age 55 and just starting to build for retirement, then beware of investment advice pushing you toward passive investments like paper assets. Your situation may require the leverage only available in business and real estate to allow you to make up for the late start and still achieve your financial goals.
In summary, if you want to succeed with investing, you must make sure Step 2 of your due diligence process analyzes each investment for congruence with your personal and portfolio objectives.
Below is a summary of the key points in the second due diligence question:
Each paper asset investment strategy must have a positive mathematical expectation, and each business or real estate investment strategy must have a competitive advantage or exploitable market edge to place the odds for profit in your favor. This is the source of your investment return.The source of investment return must persist long enough into the future to be reliably exploited (adequate sample size).The investment strategy must be consistent with your personal skills, interests, values and abilities.The investment strategy must be consistent with your portfolio objectives.You must follow the investment strategy long enough to benefit from the competitive advantage without being distracted by other investment alternatives.
When your investment passes these tests, then it's worth putting your hard-earned capital at risk to try and reach your personal and portfolio objectives. Your financial coach can be particularly valuable in clarifying these principles and how to apply them because he has no conflict of interest biasing his investment advice since he sells no investment products.
Due Diligence Question #3: What's My Exit Strategy?
See My Related Book…
You should always have your exit planned before acquiring any investment.
Why? No investment is appropriate forever.
Times change, market conditions change, and your objectives change.
You have a reason for acquiring an investment, and when those reasons are violated, it's time to exit without delay. By knowing your reasons in advance, there's no confusion or hesitation with the sell decision.
The reason it's important to sell is because your portfolio is a living entity. Selling is to your portfolio what pruning deadwood is to a tree – it makes room for new growth to occur. It's healthy.
You should never marry your investments.
Polaroid was once a darling blue chip stock that got decimated by technology changes. The rust belt was a real estate boom at one point, and the railroads were the king of transportation … but not anymore.
Everything changes, and you must change your portfolio to be congruent with the times.
There's no such thing as a "permanent investment". I've never met an investment I wouldn't sell given the right circumstances. My job as the manager of my portfolio is to understand what those circumstances are, so that I'm ready to take action when conditions warrant it.
"Affairs are easier of entrance than of exit; and it is but common prudence to see our way out before we venture in."-Aesop
I must know the assumptions and premises under which I enter an investment so that I can exit as soon as they are violated. Wherever possible, I must pre-define exit points in terms of price to control losses when things go wrong.
For example, I was a partner in a company that invested in real estate tax liens. We developed an entire business model to acquire valuable real estate for little more than back taxes. Yes, we actually purchased valuable real estate free and clear for pennies on the dollar of what it was really worth.
Never marry your investments - no investment is appropriate forever. Have an exit strategy planned.
However, despite it being profitable, we exited the business because we learned how a legal assumption critical to the success of our model was simply wrong.
Once we uncovered the false premise of our model, we exited with our profit and moved on to greener pastures. We knew the reasons behind our model, and we knew when that model was invalidated.
Some would question our logic because the model had previously been profitable, but we knew it was just a question of time until the invalid assumption would bite us in the rear.
Similarly, when I enter equity positions, I pre-define the point at which I'll exit based on price behavior that would prove my decision was incorrect.
In summary, you must always pre-define your exit strategy because the first loss is usually the best loss.
You must conserve capital when the inevitable mistake arises so that you're prepared to invest in the next opportunity. By consistently pruning your portfolio of troubled investments, you're making room for new growth to occur.
"A prudent question is one half of wisdom."-Francis Bacon, Sr.
Due Diligence Question #4: How Does This Investment Make Business Sense?
Investing is ultimately about business, so every investment must make business sense.
What that means is the earnings, valuation, and return on investment must be congruent with the competitive advantage and barriers to entry possessed by the underlying business.
Let me clarify this idea with a little bit of Economics 101.
The world of business and finance is competitive. Above market returns and excessive valuations can only be supported if a significant competitive advantage coupled with barriers to entry for future competitors exists.
Otherwise, the high valuations and returns will attract competition until returns and valuations are forced down to market level. In plain language, that means your investment loses money – which is a bad thing.
For example, when the NASDAQ indexes were selling at over 200 times earnings in 2000, it didn't take a genius to figure out this made no sense. How could a broad equity index representing a claim on the earning power of many companies in competition with each other be worth 200 years of earnings?
If an investment doesn't make business sense, then skip it. Don't fall for fraud.
The truth is it wasn't, and prices declined accordingly.
Similarly, when looking at various Southern California apartment deals in 2005, it didn't take a genius to figure out they made no business sense when they were selling at prices so high you couldn't service the debt with zero vacancy, no operating costs, zero taxes or insurance, and the lowest interest rates in the last 40 years.
There isn't a valuation model in existence that can make business sense out of such inflated prices except the greater fool theory.
In summary, you can use the business common sense test to help you avoid dangerous investment manias and speculative bubbles that can lead to losses.
Investment Advice: How To Avoid Fraud With The Business Common Sense Test
But the business common sense test isn't just limited to avoiding investment manias and speculative bubbles, because you can also use this same test to sniff out potential frauds.
For example, a common fraud I see is the classic "Ponzi" scheme where someone is offering you outrageous interest rates on your money and "guaranteeing" your principle to invest.
The business idea supporting the investment usually sounds plausible on the surface, but is often laced with techno-babble terminology to intimidate the novice from asking the following necessary and obvious questions:
How does it make business sense for the promoter to go through all the headaches of soliciting many small investors, when a legitimate business could attract all the capital needed from professionals with one phone call and at lower interest rates? (Answer: It probably isn't legitimate, and a professional would figure that out with due diligence – amateurs don't do their due diligence.)How are the exorbitant returns being promised adequately earned by the underlying business, and what are the barriers to entry that will keep those returns from being competed away (assuming the business is legitimate)?What's really behind the "guarantee" and what's really being guaranteed anyway? (Investment advice: the more somebody "guarantees", the closer you should look at the guarantee and what you're being guaranteed from.)
Knowledge is the nemesis of the con man, and an informed investor who's willing to ask questions is his worst enemy.
The way you learn is by asking questions and listening – that's what due diligence is all about.
Amateurs want to hope and believe they found an easy road to wealth so they don't ask questions and don't want to know the truth. The result is usually expensive.
I see investment fraud cross my desk with remarkable regularity. They're out there, and if you invest, you must apply business common sense and do your due diligence to flush this stuff out.
I've saved many clients hundreds of thousands of dollars just by coaching them on how to ask the right questions … and I can help you, too.
"Just wanted to thank you for your advice about the (name withheld for legal reasons) investment. I recently cashed $220K out of his deals making over 20%. The money was over a month late but it arrived. A real estate lawyer thought it was the worst contract he had ever seen; from the first sentence he knew it was bogus. Working with you really helped. I got an education and learned to do my due diligence and let the numbers be the basis for my decision."-Name Withheld For Legal Reasons
(This scam was later uncovered by the S.E.C. – investors who didn't get out early lost everything.)
Always remember that your investment represents a claim on either the assets or earning power of the underlying business. Whether it's debt, equity, or real estate, you must ultimately be able to make business sense of the return you're being promised.
If it doesn't make business sense, then it probably isn't real.
Remember, if it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is. That's just common sense investment advice for a competitive business world.
Due Diligence Question #5: How Does This Investment Affect The Risk Profile And Mathematical Expectancy Of My Portfolio?
For the statistically or financially trained, what we are talking about here is efficient frontiers and modern portfolio theory. For the rest of us, I'll try to translate into plain English.
You should never add an investment to your portfolio unless it either lowers your portfolio's risk, or raises its return. Preferably, you should get both.
How do you do this?
Let's say you have an investment strategy in stocks that returns 8% compounded over multiple cycles in the market, but loses money during bear markets. If you add an inversely correlated asset (something that zigs when the other asset zags) with a return expectancy of 12%, you'll lower the risk of the whole portfolio while increasing the return.
Examples of assets with low or negative correlation to domestic stocks include commodities, gold stocks, real estate, and certain alternative investment classes like hedge funds.
All investments should first be analyzed for their risk profile (under what conditions they will zag), and their mathematical expectation (how much they should return over time).
In Summary …
In summary, the game of investing is won or lost on the due diligence battlefield.
You must ask questions until you have the answers you need to make an intelligent decision. A quick review of the five "must ask" due diligence questions follows:
How can I lose money with this investment?How will this investment help me achieve my personal and portfolio objectives?What's my exit strategy?Does this investment pass the business common sense test?How does this investment affect the risk profile and mathematical expectancy of my portfolio?
My intention is for the above list of due diligence questions to serve as a basic starting point for your own due diligence process.
I don't pretend this list is exhaustive because a whole book could be written on the subject. Other due diligence questions to consider include:
"The key to wisdom is knowing all the right questions."-John A. Simone, Sr.
How realistic is the expected return?What are the assumptions and drivers behind the expected return?How dependent is the historical return on the time period analyzed?What are the tax consequences of this investment?What's the background and history of each principal involved?And many, many more.
My goal with this article was to arm you with some of the more important due diligence questions that can help you avoid the most obvious and expensive errors on the road to retire early and wealthy.
I hope it helps you.
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Benson Wallace11 hours ago
Hi Todd,
If real estate is chosen wisely, wouldn't it, in many cases, make sense to keep it forever? I mean, if you can keep it rented and the area doesn't become a slum, and your mortgages, over time, reduce to the point of insignificance, why not keep the properties for the rest of your life?
Benson
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Financialmentor moderator6 hours ago
@Benson Wallace Yes, that is a very common strategy with some very redeeming qualities to it.
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DaleDegagne1 day ago
Hey Todd - I love your articles. You've got a full introduction to investing course here. Thanks for sharing
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Financialmentor moderator21 hours ago
@DaleDegagne Thanks Dale. Yeah, maybe I should call some of my articles ebooks instead. Crazy!
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Donna Sako from Facebook1 day ago
I posted your questions to ask on my home bulletin board. Good advice.
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Financialmentor moderator21 hours ago
Thanks Donna. Glad they merited sharing with others. Thanks for your support.
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