Weekly Market Recap This week saw oil move below $27 a barrel only to rebound to over $32 by the end of the week. In addition, Chinese fourth quarter GDP growth came in a 6.8%, and Chinese industrial production for December grew 5.9%. These numbers represent high growth rates as compared to many countries in the world, but imply slowing growth in China relative to recent history. More generally, the IMF also nudged down its forecast for global growth for 2016 to 3.4% anticipating a deeper and longer Brazilian recession and slightly softer US growth for 2016 based on a stronger dollar impacting US exports and a weaker energy sector. The IMF's forecast for 2016 global GDP growth is above estimated growth for 2015 and in line with 2014. Given the weak start to the year for global markets, it's worth noting that fixed income instruments are performing as we would expect in this environment, and thereby providing some stability to portfolios. As a proxy for broader bond markets, the 10 year Treasury currently yields very close to 2% after starting the year above 2.2%, and, as a reminder, a falling yield means a higher bond price. This is one reason why we believe fixed income is an important component of portfolios, because when stocks dip on growth concerns, certain bonds can perform more strongly, and that's what we've seen so far in 2016. Notes:
Oil Price:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DCOILWTICO
Oil Market Report:
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
IMF World Economic Outlook January 2016:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/01/pdf/0116.pdf
10 Year US Treasury:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND
Chinese Industrial Production:
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201601/t20160119_1306463.html
Chinese GDP Growth:
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201601/t20160119_1306072.html Disclaimer:
The views expressed are for informational purposes only and are not intended to serve as a forecast, a guarantee of future results, investment recommendations or an offer to buy or sell securities by FutureAdvisor. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic, or political conditions. The investment strategies mentioned are not personalized to your financial circumstances or investment objectives, and differences in account size, the timing of transactions and market conditions prevailing at the time of investment may lead to different results. Clients may lose money. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any tax strategies discussed should not be interpreted as tax advice and do not represent in any manner that the tax consequences detailed will be obtained. Clients should consult with their personal tax advisors regarding the tax consequences of investing. Your Portfolio Summary | $8,641.69 Your Total Assets | Ways To Improve Your Portfolio | 0 Accounts with Actions | Your portfolio has no recommended actions right now. We'll watch over your investments and alert you with an email when there are actions for you to complete. Sign in to see detailed steps  | | Sign in to see your full dashboard | | 
No comments:
Post a Comment