Weekly Market RecapThis week saw soft US existing home sales for February. The oil price fell as US crude oil inventories stood at high levels. Despite this, oil remains close to $40 a barrel, and well above the lows approaching $30 a barrel we saw just last month. PMI survey data suggested expansion in the Eurozone for March, with the data making a 3 month high. The tragic terrorist attack in Belgium appeared to have little impact on the markets, however our thoughts are with those affected. On any given trading day, the chances of the US stock market rising or falling are similar to tossing a coin; a 53% chance of a rise and 47% chance of a decline to be exact, based on our historical analysis. As such, in the very short term, we view the stock market as essentially unpredictable. However, longer term stock market trends appear both more reliable and more encouraging. For example, over the course of a decade, the US market has risen 9 times out of 10 based on history. So, yes, the market can seem like a lottery on a day-to-day basis. Nonetheless, historical analysis suggests that your odds greatly improve with a long-term view and investment time horizon. We are using the US stock market for this analysis because the data stretches back the longest, but a look at global markets also reveals a similar pattern. Finally, a reminder that IRA deadlines are approaching in the next few weeks so if you haven't already done so, you should make a decision about funding your account(s) soon. Notes: Disclaimer: Your Portfolio Summary
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Sunday, March 27, 2016
Your Weekly Update - Eurozone Survey Signals Expansion
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